There is no doubt that the rapid spread of the virus in 2020
and the drastic measures used by governments to reduce the risk of contagion
have hit the world economy hard, which has experienced its worst recession
since the 1930s.
International trade was affected in 2020 due to restrictive
measures imposed by several countries to contain the pandemic. Airport and
border closures prevented trade from picking up last year, after tensions
between the United States and China eased somewhat.
To this end, Ari Afilalo, a noted Professor of Law and
recognized expert in International Trade Law, published a document stating that
the drop in international trade in 2020 reached 9.2%.
However, due to the recovery in China and the US, a slight
recovery in goods exports is noted. While imports do not yet show a significant
rebound, which would reflect the severity of the recession that is being
experienced.
In the particular case of our region, according to ECLAC,
foreign trade has been hit hard by the pandemic. And he estimated that last
year the falls in the value of exports and imports of goods was 13% and 20%,
respectively.
On the other hand, intraregional trade will be particularly
affected and a 24% drop is projected, which would have a very negative effect
on regional manufacturing exports.
Another aspect that Ari Afilalo highlights and that will be
key to the recovery of trade in 2021, is the review of trade agreements and
tariffs that will be carried out by the administration of the president-elect
of the United States, Joe Biden.
According to the Rutgers Law Professor Ari Afilalo, the improvement
in the forecast for the economy is made taking into account that in the latter
part of last year the world experienced a kind of commercial and economic
normalization; the restriction measures were relaxed and the economy returned
to part of the pre-pandemic figures.
Now, in 2021, the IMF also has a better perspective: while
in October of last year the economic rebound was at 5.2%, for the most recent
review, an economic growth of 5.5% is expected.
This improvement would be conditional on the world being
able to overcome the new waves of coronavirus that lead to economies in Europe
and some Latin American countries having to experience strict closures of their
economies.
In general, everything leads to the fact that, for the good
of the international community, greater regional integration should be
increased as a mechanism to reduce trade tensions.